Canada’s Mortgage Renewal Wave: Why It’s an Operations Year—and How Gnowise Helps

Why 2026 is a “renewal operations” year

Canada is moving through a high-volume mortgage renewal cycle that is large enough to pressure household cash flow and industry capacity—even if it does not translate into broad-based defaults. CMHC estimates that more than 750,000 mortgages renew in the last six months of 2025, followed by roughly 1.15 million renewals in 2026 and approximately 940,000 in 2027 (CMHC, 2025). BMO’s economics team highlights that renewal activity reaches an absolute peak around June 2026, reflecting the sizable 2021 origination cohort rolling off historically low contract rates (BMO, 2025). In parallel, the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25% on December 10, 2025 (Bank of Canada, 2025a).

The borrower challenge: payment shock is real—and uneven

Bank of Canada staff analysis underscores that payment pressure is widespread but highly uneven across mortgage types. About 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 are expected to see a payment increase, with most of these borrowers holding a five-year fixed-rate contract (Bank of Canada, 2025b). Relative to December 2024 payments, the average monthly payment is estimated to be around 10% higher for 2025 renewers and around 6% higher for 2026 renewers, but these averages mask significant dispersion by product. For five-year fixed borrowers renewing in 2025 or 2026, the average payment increase is estimated around 15%–20% (and approximately 20% for 2026 renewers specifically). For variable-rate, fixed-payment borrowers renewing in 2026, outcomes are more polarized; staff estimate that about 10% could face payment increases greater than 40% (Bank of Canada, 2025b).

What this means for mortgage brokerages and PropTech platforms

For brokerages and PropTech platforms, the renewal wave is best viewed as an operational workflow rather than a rate-quote event. Higher renewal volumes, tighter affordability, and a larger share of files requiring explanation or structuring will increase cycle-time risk and client churn risk. Borrowers will often evaluate renewals through a bundle of practical questions—whether they have sufficient equity to refinance or restructure, whether their local market is liquid enough if selling becomes necessary, how confident they can be in a current estimate of value, and how exposed they are to localized downside risks. Platforms that can answer these questions clearly and consistently create a defensible advisory experience and a stickier client relationship.

How Gnowise helps: the collateral intelligence layer for renewal workflows

Gnowise can be deployed as a property- and market-intelligence layer that enables faster triage, stronger borrower conversations, and scalable renewal experiences. First, automated valuation intelligence—delivered as an AVM with a value range and confidence controls—helps teams reduce reliance on subjective estimates and focus manual effort where uncertainty is highest. Second, market context (including HPI-adjusted valuation signals) supports borrower education and reduces the risk of making decisions based on national averages that do not reflect neighborhood-level conditions. Third, liquidity and downside indicators can be used to segment renewals proactively, prioritizing early outreach for borrowers whose payment shock is paired with weaker marketability or higher local volatility. Finally, where required for enterprise governance, property-level physical/climate risk overlays can add a forward-looking dimension to collateral review and exception handling, particularly when insurance availability or long-run collateral quality is part of the decision process.

High-impact enhancements that can be built on top of Gnowise

Several broker- and PropTech-ready capabilities can be built quickly when Gnowise intelligence is used as the foundation. A white-label “Renewal Readiness Score” can combine estimated value and value range, local trend context, liquidity signals, and downside flags (and, where appropriate, physical risk overlays) into a simple, explainable prioritization output. A borrower-facing “Renewal Pack” can automatically generate a client-ready summary of value, local market context, and action prompts that support advisor workflows and reduce back-and-forth. Finally, configurable exception automation rules can route files into fast-track renewal lanes, “documentation/appraisal required” lanes, or enhanced review lanes using thresholds tied to valuation confidence, liquidity risk, and downside indicators—improving throughput while keeping decision logic consistent.

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