Gnowise built Scenario Analysis to help homeowners, investors, builders, and planners quickly answer one question: “Which upgrade or redevelopment path actually pays off?” In under ~2 minutes (typical, depending on API response times), the module generates a ranked set of realistic scenarios—only scenarios that change actual valuation model inputs (beds, baths, living area, condition, age, basement status, unit count)—and returns a conservative ROI range with a clean PDF export.
The challenge
Most “reno ROI calculators” fail in practice because they:
- Suggest improvements (deck, landscaping, finishes) that don’t translate into measurable valuation inputs, so ROI becomes subjective.
- Ignore zoning feasibility, leading to unrealistic rebuild/expansion assumptions.
- Use flat costs that repeat across scenarios, producing misleading comparisons.
The solution: Gnowise Scenario Analysis
Scenario Analysis combines a constraint-aware scenario generator with a cost engine and valuation loop:
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Property verification (inputs)
The user confirms/adjusts key valuation inputs (e.g., beds/baths, living area, condition, age, basement, parking, unit count). -
Zoning-informed feasibility (when available)
The tool incorporates zoning signals (e.g., height → approximate storey potential, FSI/coverage if present) to keep rebuild/addition options grounded. -
Scenario generation with guardrails
Scenarios are created via templates + AI, but a strict validator enforces:
- The scenario must change at least one AVM input (otherwise it’s dropped).
- Enums and ranges match the valuation API constraints.
- Changes remain internally consistent (e.g., “add a unit” must increase kitchens/unit count; “new build” must reset age/condition and typically assumes finished basement).
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Sophisticated cost estimation (not one-size-fits-all)
Costs are derived using the best-fit model per scenario type:
- Area-based (per ft²) for additions, new builds, conversions, basement finishing
- Component-based for kitchen/bath upgrades, internal reconfigurations
- Hybrid when both scope and area change
This prevents the “same $X for every option” failure mode and makes comparisons meaningful.
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Valuation + conservative ROI ranking
Each scenario is valued through the AVM, then ranked by downside-case ROI (conservative assumptions), with low/med/high ranges available for transparency. -
Shareable output
A clean PDF report is generated for stakeholders (homeowner, investor, builder, planner) showing ranked scenarios, costs, value deltas, and ROI bands.
What the client/user gets
- A shortlist of the best paths (not a long list of ideas)
- Defensible value deltas tied to model inputs (not vibes)
- Conservative ranking to reduce downside risk
- A PDF ready to share for approvals, decision-making, or partner conversations
Why it matters
Scenario Analysis shifts decisions from “opinions about renovations” to a repeatable, data-backed workflow—helping users prioritize the few moves most likely to improve value and ROI under real-world constraints.